Analyzing Income and Expenses of Cooperative Rural Banks in ABC Division - Sri Lanka

Abstract

Cooperative rural banks (CRBs) play an important role in providing the rural credit needs offering loans, pawning facilities and savings in rural sector in Sri Lanka. Predict total income, total expenses then net profit/loss to get idea about financial strength of CRBs in Sri Lanka. The financial strength of CRBs is assessed using statements of financial position, profit and loss statements, cash flow statements and budget performance with total operating income and total operating expenses. In the CRB Ltd the revenue from all branches for the next year is estimated referring only the past monthly records in the budget division and there is no any proper model to estimate the annual revenue from update income of Rural Bank revenue and expenses. Therefore, this study proposes to predict revenue and expenses from update of rural branches in ABC division using Box Jenkins. Monthly data of 10 years were collected from the annual reports from January 2011 to December 2020 prepared by the CRB Ltd budget. The revenue obtained by the CRB Ltd from updating of rural branches revenue and expenses from 2011 to 2020 is modelled and the best forecasting model for total revenue is SARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)_12. Then all expenses of all 13 rural branches can be predicted and found that the best fitted model to forecast the expenses is SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)_12. Consequently, it can be predicted the profit/loss from CRBs overall 2021 year. Also, this approach can be used to model CRBs in other regions and extended for coming years as well.